WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 2020 Monsoon Outlook Forecasts from the most highly skilled climate forecast models indicate that precipitation in central and northern New Mexico during July, August and September (JAS) 2020 will most likely range from near to … In watching how June is going and what is being seen coming into the start of the monsoon season. Summer 2021 is slowly and steadily approaching. To see long term forecasts for the entire year, pick up a copy of The 2021 Old Farmer’s Almanac, available online and in stores. But we still have over a month of springtime left, so we decided to take a look at the early summer trends for 2021 across Europe and North America. Toggle navigation. "It was one of the hottest and driest on record." It is in a constant flow, from one season … summer (and winter) 2021 forecast for africa: hot sahara, floods in sahel, drought in congo and east africa Understanding Regional Linkages Between Production Agriculture, Air Quality, and Climate. 1b). Mar 2021 SW Climate Podcast - Was Winter "La-Niña-y"? All the weather intel you need for summer 2021 is here -- including what's in store for wildfire season in the West and the big East Coast city that could hit … Precipitation totals from stations around the region demonstrate the below normal precipitation conditions this winter (Fig. Monthly Precipitation and Temperature: February precipitation was mostly below average to record driest in Arizona and near average across most of New Mexico (Fig. Time Lapse video of Monsoon storms in New Mexico near Albuquerque, Mt Taylor, and Cabezon. Enter any city, zip or place. 1a). summer forecast for asia: hot, but strong indian monsoon . Free Long Range Weather Forecast for Santa Fe, New Mexico July 2021. FILE – This Feb. 17, 2021 file photo shows an empty irrigation canal at a tree farm in Corrales, N.M., with the Sandia Mountains in the background, as much of the West is … CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. t conditions (D2-Snowfall has also been low, carrying drought conditions into the winter. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Winter Precipitation and Temperature: Dec-Feb Precipitation ranks were average to below average across most of the Southwest, with a few pockets of much below average (Fig. 7, top). This is partly because much of the region is at the highest drought category (D4, Exceptional Drought): In Arizona and New Mexico, over 50-percent of the region is in D4, and over 80-percent is in at least D3 (Extreme Drought). The three-month temperature outlook calls for increased chances of above-normal temperatures across the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico (Fig. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The city is not likely to come close to this record again in 2021 due to the moisture from the monsoon. new!!! Temperature ranks for the same period were average to above average across most of Arizona, and mostly average in New Mexico, with some pockets of both above and below average (Fig. The monsoon activity accounts […] February temperatures ranged between average and above average in most of Arizona and between average and below average in most of New Mexico (Fig. Toggle navigation. new!!! The Dollars will decline 5% in 2021 against major currencies i.e. See long range weather forecasts for the next 60 days from The Old Farmer’s Almanac! April and May will be cooler than normal in the east and warmer in the west, with above-normal rainfall. 5). 6). The moisture-laden monsoon air travels north to Arizona and New Mexico, encouraged by the pressure difference between the hot, parched southwestern air and the cooler Mexican air. Andre Yang will become the new Mayor of New York in 2021. FEB2021 SW Climate Podcast - Recent Storms & Dry Forecasts - La Niña & 2021, Southwest Climate Outlook October 2020 - Climate Summary, Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - October 2020, Responding to Flooding in Ottawa County, OK - CLIMAS E&S Grad Fellow. Thursday, March 18, 2021 Monthly Precipitation and Temperature: February precipitation was mostly below average to record driest in Arizona and near average across most of New Mexico (Fig. The hardest hit areas are in Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico, where severe to exceptional drought developed in 2020 and persisted through winter. Despite some winter storm activity (including some impressive snow totals), the expectation remains for cumulative cool season precipitation totals to be below average for much of the Southwest. We had a good surge through Tucson in the beginning of the month and this The states experiencing the most intense drought are Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. 11 Historical average rain this season to day 12 of May for this station since 2012. Enjoy the moisture, but be sure to head inside if there is thunder and lightning! Due to the prevalence of high-pressure over Mexico, dry Monthly fire outlook for North America for April 2021 (left), May 2021 (middle), and June 2021 … Best of the Worst? 4). The hottest periods will occur in mid-June and late August. Drought: Water year precipitation to date (as of Feb 28, 2021) reveals widespread below normal and much below normal conditions across the Southwest, along with a large cluster of record driest in the CA/NV/AZ region (Fig. Add to that a contracting monsoon season. June 15th marks the start of the monsoon season and we will see only the New Mexico zones really having an activity, along with Southeast Arizona. 6 Air Quality Index is provided by Air Quality Bureau (AQB) of the New Mexico Environment Department and is updated hourly between the hours of 6AM and Midnight. These states in the Southwest developed severe to exceptional drought in 2020 as La Niña conditions and a failed 2020 summer monsoon contributed to the lack of rainfall in the region. Here are the regions that neighbor the Desert Southwest long range weather region: Custom programming and server maintenance by, Get the Long Range Weather for Your Location, temperature 74.5° (2° below avg. 7, bottom). Summer rains were spotty at best across New Mexico, while the mountain city of Flagstaff, Arizona, marked its second consecutive driest monsoon season on record in 2020. Without monsoon rains and predictions for a dry and warm winter, the 2021 water forecast is dire. new!!! You would really like to know when New Mexico’s summer rains will finally get here, and whether we will have a wet monsoon season… The Old Farmer's Almanac's extended forecasts can be used to make more informed decisions about future plans that depend on the weather, from vacations and weddings to gardening, hiking, and other outdoor activities. Monsoon season brings heavy rains, and impressive clouds, to New Mexico. east, 3° above west). SWCO Editor, Assistant Research Professor; UA. Models from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center suggest a greater chance for rain in the next three months. 3). ... Water use restrictions are likely to “come into play during the course of the summer season… During the fall, winter, and spring, precipitation is brought to New Mexico … Summer rains were spotty at best across New Mexico, while the mountain city of Flagstaff, Arizona, marked its second consecutive driest monsoon season … Summer will be cooler than normal, with near-normal rainfall. The maps below are focused on capturing unique elements of the summer monsoon season across New Mexico including total precipitation, intensity, and frequency of precipitation events. Due to the poor summer monsoon Most of the reservoirs in the region are at or below the values recorded at this time last year. However, considerable research, which culminated in the Southwest Arizona Monsoon Project (SWAMP) in 1990 and 1993, established the fact that a bonafide monsoon, characterized by large-scale wind and rainfall shifts in the summer, develops over much of Mexico and the intermountain region of the U.S. Precipitation and Temperature Forecast: The three-month outlook for Apr through Jun calls for increased chances for below-normal precipitation across most of the southwestern U.S., with a swath of increased chances of above-normal precipitation extending from central Mexico into southeastern Arizona (Fig. Most are below their long-term average (see Arizona and New Mexico reservoir storage). ENSO forecast indicates that La Nina conditions are favored to persist through March-April-May, followed by a transition to ENSO-Neutral later in the spring and into the early summer. Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office. ... allot any water to farmers in southern New Mexico… Note: Long range forecasts are regional, not city-specific. 10 Historical average only to day 12 of just the month of May for this station since 2012. So I know this is the time you would really like a forecast. The Southwestern Monsoon - Presentations and Q&A, Evaluating Environmental Water Acquisitions & Regional Climate Services. With minimal water expected from the blue skies again this year, more will be added to New Mexico’s water debt. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While conditions are slightly better in the Rio Grande Headwaters, conditions in the rest of New Mexico are challenging. ENSO Tracker: La Niña conditions are present and are expected to continue through spring (see ENSO-tracker for details). Gig workers in US could be paid in stock up to 15% of a gig workers yearly compensation in the form of equity. The Desert Southwest long range weather region includes all or part of the following states: ARIZONA (Glendale, Mesa, Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tucson), CALIFORNIA (Brawley, Calexico, Coachella, El Centro, Indio), COLORADO (Durango), NEVADA (Henderson, Las Vegas, Paradise, Spring Valley, Sunrise Manor), NEW MEXICO (Albuquerque, Las Cruces, Rio Rancho, Roswell, Santa Fe), TEXAS (El Paso, San Elizario, Socorro). The March-April-May (MAM) 2021 temperature outlook favors above normal winter 2021 forecast for australia: still rainy and stormy thanks to la nina . September and October will be cooler than normal, with near- to slightly above-normal precipitation. WeatherTAB Santa Fe, New Mexico Help °C °F. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. "It is definitely a better outlook than last year," meteorologist Andrew Church of the National Weather Service in Albuquerque said shortly after posting the "2020 Monsoon Outlook for Central and Northern New Mexico" on the agency's website on the afternoon of June 15. The weather never starts and never ends. See long range weather forecasts for the next 60 days for the Desert Southwest Region. Issued: May 1, 2021 Next Issuance: June 1, 2021 Outlook Period – May 2021 through August 2021 Executive Summary The significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services … Most of the state entered into snow season in droughD4) following a weak summer monsoon. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is mostly unchanged over the last month in the U.S. Southwest (Fig. Winter will be colder and drier than normal, with the coldest periods in mid- and late December and mid- and late February. June is notoriously hot in SE NM and we usually see our highest daily summertime temperatures. Streamflow forecasts reflect this reality and are well below median across most of the Southwest (Fig. Calendar overview of Months Weather Forecast. Not always though. Disclaimer. winter 2021 forecast for south america: from snow to tropical rainfall. Jun July 2021 . Our long range forecasts can be used to make more informed decisions about future plans that depend on the weather, from vacations and weddings to sporting events and outdoor activities. July and August can be just as hot with records highs in the Pecos Valley all above 110ºF. As far as dressing for the Northern New Mexico weather when you come rafting with us, best to wear synthetic clothing in the earlier part of the rafting season, April-May, swim trunks and a tee shirt in the heart of the season, June, July and early August, and synthetic clothing towards the end of the season, late August and September. Snowpack and Water Supply: Snow water equivalent (SWE) is well below the 1981-2010 median for much of the region (see the NRCS website for details). Snowfall will be below normal in most areas that normally receive snow, with the snowiest periods in late December and late February. Arizona’s Monsoon Status Arizona’s monsoon is the northern extent of the North American Monsoon, which begins in early June in central and southern Mexico.The monsoon is a season, during which the dry westerly winds that persist through fall, winter and spring shift to moist southerly winds, bringing thunderstorm activity into Arizona. Monday (June 15th) marks the beginning of our annual Desert Southwest Monsoon season which ends September 30th. new!!! 2a). A weak summer monsoon season and ongoing La Niña conditions have stifled precipitation. Severe to extreme drought conditions cover a good portion of northern and eastern New Mexico. “Meanwhile, climate forecast models and the Climate Prediction Center all agree that July will be a bit warmer than normal with near-normal precipitation chances.” Laney says he expects August into September will round out the monsoon season with near-normal conditions both in the temperature and precipitation. 2b). 1a). Arizona Board of Regents | Arizona Institutes for Resilience | Administrator log-in, APR2021 SW Climate Podcast - Winter Recap & Assessing Seasonal/Mega Drought. New Mexico and other areas across the Southwest U.S. are affected by the North American Monsoon System (NAMS) every summer, and the “Monsoon Season” is designated as the period lasting from June 15th through September 30th. New Mexico accrued its heavy water debt from last year’s release from El Vado Reservoir of 12 billion gallons to keep the Rio Grande flowing through Albuquerque and boost river flows to extend central New Mexico’s irrigation season. situation in Mexico with minimal recovery in northern Baja California, Morelos, Puebla, Guerrero, and western portions of the State of Mexico. Mexico, Russia and India will cut their interest rates as well. Even with a good amount of monsoon moisture, it … (Photo by Craig Martin) By Jean Dewart.